Great! I think elections bribes as a phenomenon is now limited to Poor regions of UP and Bihar and coming down fast. Even if some handouts happen because of the past culture of it, people no longer vote on the basis of it. They just take stuff from whoever is willing to give with no strings attached and vote whomever they want. The read deal in elections throughout India today is caste. People lobby for their caste man to get election ticket and vote for him. Parties give tickets based on which caste has majority in constituency. This is probably one thing that's uniform across all of India today. They only feel represented(and proud) when their caste comrade is MP/MLA. But this too is changing, albeit slowly because rural middle class size is expanding and more people are learning about all the benefits, schemes, their rights etc.
This is from my first hand experience growing up in rural gujarat, also a poorer region (eastern Kutch)that got richer in last decade.
love this piece: I would highly recommend Rukmini S' Whole Numbers and Half Truths. It's a book that studies modern India through data (she is a data journalist), and it is, in my opinion, the second best introduction to modern India after the Guha book.
Really insightful look at the boots-on-the-ground reality of India's capital shifts. The intersection of local innovation and global capital allocation you've touched on is exactly what we observe at The Indian Dream X. Particularly interested in how the cultural nuances you've highlighted are now driving financial outcomes in the frontier tech space.
We lag behind considerably behind China in all economic and social indicators . For example our Nominal per capita income is under $2,000. But China’s is touching just under $ 10,000. We have an advantage of in $ to Local currency ratio. Still we are under $ 7,000 whereas China is $ 22,000. That would mean an average Chinese is three times richer than Average Indian.The percentage of extremely poor Chinese ( those whose per capita income is less than $ 2 per day is under 10%. Whereas Indians (who earn less than $ 2 per day is 30 %. That means over400 million Indians are at extreme poverty level. This poverty level provides less than 1, 700 K. Cal energy but not a balanced Diet. The children born to such parents are mal nourished underweight and do not have proper mental ability and they will be handicapped life long.Hunger and Poverty are the two curses that shall not visit on any body. As we know humans need Proteins build the body and play a major part of Indian dietary deficit. Proteins are obtained from milk, eggs, Dhall (legumes), meat, fish. All these are expensive. Hence we have worlds largest (50%) undernourished children.If you set aside religious issues, rejecting even cow’s meat is harmful. It has an effect of overgrazing the Indian land and degrading grass land. Please remember Without Grass there would be no human civilisation. Please note Ricr, Wheat, Corn, Jowar, Ragi are are grass. I am not advocating any body to eat cow’s meat. But any interference in nature will have disastrous consequences.If you follow the current interventionist policy, Leather Industry will collapse. India loses its competitive edge. Cows themselves will suffer. As once Cattle stops giving milk or bulls become too old to work, they become a burden to the farmer. Then farmer will starve them and they will die in larger number in emancipated condition.However they have made enoromous effort to develop diary industry and broaden their economy.China depends on Pigs and pork as they have very little grazing land. They are well fed as they were not directly colonised as India was and thus they were better fed.In 1947 we were 400 million and hardly producing 40 million tons of food grains. Today we are 1400 million producing close 165 million million tons of major grains and further minor food grains like grains like sweet Corn, maize, Raghi etc..Still our per capita availability of food grain has fallen and availability of legumes, fish, meat has fallen drastically. Only good point we have kept up with populatin increase. Milk availability has increased.China has no such problems. Our democracy, corruption, bureaucracy, poor distribution channels exacerbate the problems.. They have not had such problems as it is ruled by communist regimes. Again I Am not backing totalitarian system as their Great Leap Forward (Cultural revolution ) killed 38 million people.China produces all kinds of Industrial Goods and their GDP is today is larger than USA in PPP, where as we are only a fourth of that. We produce very little manufactured goods compared to China. Comparatively China produces for the world, we almost just manage to produce for our population with a shortfall.We have a trade deficit, whereas China has a trade surplus.Their army is nearly 2 1/2 times larger and spend nearly 4–5 times compared to us. They are challenging US in far flung theatres though cautiously. They are on the way developing a two ocean capability. May be only to safeguard trade routes. We have only started an attempt to safeguard our backyard of Indian Ocean.We have better Air Force and Navy but entirely dependent upon foreign supplies, but they have built indigenous defence Industry. We lag behind them in capacity. It will suck our resources badly.They have serious threats all around them and they have no genuine friends. Japan, ASEAN, US, Russia India and Europe are all weary of them their friends are Pakistan and North Korea. They can purchase friends with money and aid. We have only weary neighbours. But only Pakistan as serious enemy. Even China is only a weary neighbour.They have lots insurgency in their periphery like Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, party troubles etc. We are also in a similar situation including Kashmir.
. If the Chinese government can keep the job market fairly stable, navigate the perils of growth, and avoid wars, ….never.
One good thing about the Chinese government is that it is always focused on the economy and plans years in advance. China can look 20, 30 years into the future and keep it’s growth aimed in a steady and unrelenting manner. China is a model for other underdeveloped countries to follow. Her diverse growth and economic stature is nothing short of amazing over the last 30 or so years.
This is one thing that western countries cannot do efficiently and effectively. Changes in parties, changes in government, compromises, budgetary constraints, and short range planning cause inefficient and sometimes paralyzing decisions. An uninformed and uneducated citizenry cannot optimize Democracy in today’s fast moving world. A biased, misleading, and false media and leadership makes a mockery of what Democracy was meant to be. In this environment, swings tend to be more pronounced and dramatic so false bubbles form and pop. Greed of a few overwhelm the desires and needs of the masses. Oligharchs are dominating many countries today, including the United States.
One thing China needs to watch out is her demographics. Like Japan, China’s senior population is growing and because of it’s ‘one child’ policy, a contraction in population with a aging of it’s working population will occur. Japan suffers from this malaise today and no end is in sight. Some predict her population will decline by a third by 2060. (Wikipedia) The decline in population in Japan is not because it had a ‘one child’ policy but because couples decided against having children or young people staying single, the effect is the same, population decline.
Japan’s technology lead is waning, her population is declining, and wealth creation is stagnant. Abe is trying to revive the military as one way to keep the economy alive. (the Korean War catalyzed Japan’s economic miracle after world war 2) North Korea’s threat has come at the right time for Japan to use this as the excuse to grow the military and to sell weapons overseas as a new growth market. Time will tell if this works.
Japan probably is in more peril than China because Japan tends not to allow new immigrants or foreigners to become Japanese citizens or residents. China too can suffer this effect if it does not plan ahead. With that in mind, automation is the future of manufacturing and many logistic processes. Japan and China are strong in this area and it will help offset the young people labor shortage in the near future. The future problem will be the support of seniors and the healthcare system as they live longer.
China’s Communist Party currently promotes innovation, disruptive technologies, and new ideas which, if the seeds sprout, will ensure future products and markets. Currently, things like infrastructure, fast trains, electric transportation, food production, super computers, QR code applications, high density batteries and capacitors, solar, and wind help to ensure current and future markets. Artificial Intelligence, nuclear (Thorium and Fusion, high temperature reactors), biologics, synthetic biology, genetics, nanotech, quantum applications, aerospace, marine mining, space applications, and more will continue to propel China in the future. Technology has been, is, and will be the wave that carries economic growth and prosperity forward for China.
As long as China’s government continues to support these efforts and shares these financial benefits with her citizens and expands to share these technologies with her neighbors and friends, the world will become more China centric and the future will look bright. China’s vision of a ‘peaceful rise’ should be the vision for all countries.
China’s support of Africa, and now Eurasia (Belt Road Initiative), will grow the seeds of future growth in food, energy, and resources. Integrated economies will help lessen the threat of wars and discord. Shared logistics and development is a win-win for all countries involved.
America used to be that beacon and technology was her strength. Today, her government, politics, and wealth distribution is destroying the advantages she had to become the hegemon of the world. Her political leadership is void of moral, technical, and political wisdom. Today, America is in decline and her leadership is incompetent and lacks the wisdom to support future technologies and their ecosystems.
China’s only fear should be that she too will become ambivalent and become like America or like her history past during the century of humiliation. Let’s hope her leaders remembered that lesson well and China will continue to be a great and strong nation,
Great! I think elections bribes as a phenomenon is now limited to Poor regions of UP and Bihar and coming down fast. Even if some handouts happen because of the past culture of it, people no longer vote on the basis of it. They just take stuff from whoever is willing to give with no strings attached and vote whomever they want. The read deal in elections throughout India today is caste. People lobby for their caste man to get election ticket and vote for him. Parties give tickets based on which caste has majority in constituency. This is probably one thing that's uniform across all of India today. They only feel represented(and proud) when their caste comrade is MP/MLA. But this too is changing, albeit slowly because rural middle class size is expanding and more people are learning about all the benefits, schemes, their rights etc.
This is from my first hand experience growing up in rural gujarat, also a poorer region (eastern Kutch)that got richer in last decade.
Great stuff!
Excellent piece, Arjun - thank you for taking the time to write it👏
Love it! If you are looking for other reads about India, you may want to check out @The Indian Dream :)
love this piece: I would highly recommend Rukmini S' Whole Numbers and Half Truths. It's a book that studies modern India through data (she is a data journalist), and it is, in my opinion, the second best introduction to modern India after the Guha book.
Really insightful look at the boots-on-the-ground reality of India's capital shifts. The intersection of local innovation and global capital allocation you've touched on is exactly what we observe at The Indian Dream X. Particularly interested in how the cultural nuances you've highlighted are now driving financial outcomes in the frontier tech space.
We lag behind considerably behind China in all economic and social indicators . For example our Nominal per capita income is under $2,000. But China’s is touching just under $ 10,000. We have an advantage of in $ to Local currency ratio. Still we are under $ 7,000 whereas China is $ 22,000. That would mean an average Chinese is three times richer than Average Indian.The percentage of extremely poor Chinese ( those whose per capita income is less than $ 2 per day is under 10%. Whereas Indians (who earn less than $ 2 per day is 30 %. That means over400 million Indians are at extreme poverty level. This poverty level provides less than 1, 700 K. Cal energy but not a balanced Diet. The children born to such parents are mal nourished underweight and do not have proper mental ability and they will be handicapped life long.Hunger and Poverty are the two curses that shall not visit on any body. As we know humans need Proteins build the body and play a major part of Indian dietary deficit. Proteins are obtained from milk, eggs, Dhall (legumes), meat, fish. All these are expensive. Hence we have worlds largest (50%) undernourished children.If you set aside religious issues, rejecting even cow’s meat is harmful. It has an effect of overgrazing the Indian land and degrading grass land. Please remember Without Grass there would be no human civilisation. Please note Ricr, Wheat, Corn, Jowar, Ragi are are grass. I am not advocating any body to eat cow’s meat. But any interference in nature will have disastrous consequences.If you follow the current interventionist policy, Leather Industry will collapse. India loses its competitive edge. Cows themselves will suffer. As once Cattle stops giving milk or bulls become too old to work, they become a burden to the farmer. Then farmer will starve them and they will die in larger number in emancipated condition.However they have made enoromous effort to develop diary industry and broaden their economy.China depends on Pigs and pork as they have very little grazing land. They are well fed as they were not directly colonised as India was and thus they were better fed.In 1947 we were 400 million and hardly producing 40 million tons of food grains. Today we are 1400 million producing close 165 million million tons of major grains and further minor food grains like grains like sweet Corn, maize, Raghi etc..Still our per capita availability of food grain has fallen and availability of legumes, fish, meat has fallen drastically. Only good point we have kept up with populatin increase. Milk availability has increased.China has no such problems. Our democracy, corruption, bureaucracy, poor distribution channels exacerbate the problems.. They have not had such problems as it is ruled by communist regimes. Again I Am not backing totalitarian system as their Great Leap Forward (Cultural revolution ) killed 38 million people.China produces all kinds of Industrial Goods and their GDP is today is larger than USA in PPP, where as we are only a fourth of that. We produce very little manufactured goods compared to China. Comparatively China produces for the world, we almost just manage to produce for our population with a shortfall.We have a trade deficit, whereas China has a trade surplus.Their army is nearly 2 1/2 times larger and spend nearly 4–5 times compared to us. They are challenging US in far flung theatres though cautiously. They are on the way developing a two ocean capability. May be only to safeguard trade routes. We have only started an attempt to safeguard our backyard of Indian Ocean.We have better Air Force and Navy but entirely dependent upon foreign supplies, but they have built indigenous defence Industry. We lag behind them in capacity. It will suck our resources badly.They have serious threats all around them and they have no genuine friends. Japan, ASEAN, US, Russia India and Europe are all weary of them their friends are Pakistan and North Korea. They can purchase friends with money and aid. We have only weary neighbours. But only Pakistan as serious enemy. Even China is only a weary neighbour.They have lots insurgency in their periphery like Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, party troubles etc. We are also in a similar situation including Kashmir.
9166648230
Can you call me with this number 9166648230 at the what’sapp
. If the Chinese government can keep the job market fairly stable, navigate the perils of growth, and avoid wars, ….never.
One good thing about the Chinese government is that it is always focused on the economy and plans years in advance. China can look 20, 30 years into the future and keep it’s growth aimed in a steady and unrelenting manner. China is a model for other underdeveloped countries to follow. Her diverse growth and economic stature is nothing short of amazing over the last 30 or so years.
This is one thing that western countries cannot do efficiently and effectively. Changes in parties, changes in government, compromises, budgetary constraints, and short range planning cause inefficient and sometimes paralyzing decisions. An uninformed and uneducated citizenry cannot optimize Democracy in today’s fast moving world. A biased, misleading, and false media and leadership makes a mockery of what Democracy was meant to be. In this environment, swings tend to be more pronounced and dramatic so false bubbles form and pop. Greed of a few overwhelm the desires and needs of the masses. Oligharchs are dominating many countries today, including the United States.
One thing China needs to watch out is her demographics. Like Japan, China’s senior population is growing and because of it’s ‘one child’ policy, a contraction in population with a aging of it’s working population will occur. Japan suffers from this malaise today and no end is in sight. Some predict her population will decline by a third by 2060. (Wikipedia) The decline in population in Japan is not because it had a ‘one child’ policy but because couples decided against having children or young people staying single, the effect is the same, population decline.
Japan’s technology lead is waning, her population is declining, and wealth creation is stagnant. Abe is trying to revive the military as one way to keep the economy alive. (the Korean War catalyzed Japan’s economic miracle after world war 2) North Korea’s threat has come at the right time for Japan to use this as the excuse to grow the military and to sell weapons overseas as a new growth market. Time will tell if this works.
Japan probably is in more peril than China because Japan tends not to allow new immigrants or foreigners to become Japanese citizens or residents. China too can suffer this effect if it does not plan ahead. With that in mind, automation is the future of manufacturing and many logistic processes. Japan and China are strong in this area and it will help offset the young people labor shortage in the near future. The future problem will be the support of seniors and the healthcare system as they live longer.
China’s Communist Party currently promotes innovation, disruptive technologies, and new ideas which, if the seeds sprout, will ensure future products and markets. Currently, things like infrastructure, fast trains, electric transportation, food production, super computers, QR code applications, high density batteries and capacitors, solar, and wind help to ensure current and future markets. Artificial Intelligence, nuclear (Thorium and Fusion, high temperature reactors), biologics, synthetic biology, genetics, nanotech, quantum applications, aerospace, marine mining, space applications, and more will continue to propel China in the future. Technology has been, is, and will be the wave that carries economic growth and prosperity forward for China.
As long as China’s government continues to support these efforts and shares these financial benefits with her citizens and expands to share these technologies with her neighbors and friends, the world will become more China centric and the future will look bright. China’s vision of a ‘peaceful rise’ should be the vision for all countries.
China’s support of Africa, and now Eurasia (Belt Road Initiative), will grow the seeds of future growth in food, energy, and resources. Integrated economies will help lessen the threat of wars and discord. Shared logistics and development is a win-win for all countries involved.
America used to be that beacon and technology was her strength. Today, her government, politics, and wealth distribution is destroying the advantages she had to become the hegemon of the world. Her political leadership is void of moral, technical, and political wisdom. Today, America is in decline and her leadership is incompetent and lacks the wisdom to support future technologies and their ecosystems.
China’s only fear should be that she too will become ambivalent and become like America or like her history past during the century of humiliation. Let’s hope her leaders remembered that lesson well and China will continue to be a great and strong nation,